Mortgage Rate 'Lock-In' Keeps 70-80% of Homeowners From Listing in 2026
2026-05-22
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Roughly 70-80% of outstanding U.S. mortgages carried interest rates below 6% entering 2026, according to separate analyses from Realtor.com and National Mortgage Professional, even as the average 30-year fixed rate hovered around 6.5% for much of the year.
The gap creates a strong disincentive to sell: a homeowner holding a 5% mortgage who sells to buy a $400,000 home at a 6.5% rate would see their monthly payment rise by roughly $381, according to one 2026 analysis, a cost many homeowners are choosing to avoid by simply staying in place.
Fannie Mae's May 2026 forecast projected the 30-year fixed rate to average 6.3% for the year, with analysts suggesting a sustained move below 6% would likely be needed to meaningfully unlock listing activity and existing-home sales, which have remained close to three-decade lows through much of 2026.
For the households that are moving despite this environment, whether due to job relocation, family changes, or downsizing, understanding total move cost upfront matters more given broader affordability pressure; see our true cost of a local move breakdown.